STATISTICALLY OBAMA ALREADY WON THE ELECTION MONDAY NIGHT When you work in marketing, you’re bombarded with statistics. ...4 Nov 2008 1909 Views
STATISTICALLY OBAMA ALREADY WON THE ELECTION MONDAY NIGHT
When you work in marketing, you’re bombarded with statistics. I’ve long maintained that inside big companies statistics are often used as a political football (misrepresented in order for one party to get its way). One of the most common abuses is to declare cause and effect based on a sole statistic. Next time you see this happening remind your colleagues of the Redskin Rule.
Since 1940 when the American football team the Redskins moved to Washington DC, they have determined the presidency of the United States. It’s true – statistically.
“It’s called the Redskins Rule, and it has an accuracy rate of either 94 or 100 percent depending on how it’s applied. Every time the Redskins win their final home game before a presidential election, the candidate representing the incumbent party remains in office. Every time they lose, the incumbent party’s candidate loses as well.” (Washington Post)
The only possible exceptions were the Bush Jr. victories, starting in 2000 when Bush won a controversial victory over Al Gore who actually won the popular vote. This seems to have thrown the system off-kilter, because later in 2004 the Redskins predicted Kerry as the winner. At that time the inventor of the rule, ESPN’s Steve Hirdt, amended the Redskins Rule to have it refer to the previous winner of the popular vote, not the electoral vote, thus restoring its 100% accuracy rate.
So forget watching the polls and pundits today. The election was already decided yesterday on Monday Night Football.
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Speaker, consultant & founder of Duffy Agency, the flipped digital agency that provides accelerated growth to aspiring international brands.